What Big Ten football fans should know about the 2024 Penn State Nittany Lions (2024)

Apr 13, 2024; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks on the field during a warmup practice prior to the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Head Coach: James Franklin (ranked No. 4 in Big Ten)

Offensive Coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki (ranked No. 4 in Big Ten)

Defensive Coordinator: Tom Allen (ranked No. 9 in Big Ten)

Dec 30, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the sidelines against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State’s recent history has been somewhat simple: it has been one of the best programs in the Big Ten and in the country. The program has five 10-win seasons since James Franklin’s breakthrough in 2016, including 11-2 and 10-3 records over the last two seasons respectively.

The issue: while the Nittany Lions are perennially one of the best teams in the sport, they have not been better than Big Ten East foes Ohio State and Michigan. Usually, losing to a sport’s top teams or programs is not something to overly criticize. In this case, it’s been Penn State’s biggest roadblock to reaching the College Football Playoff.

Penn State went 11-2 in 2017 but lost to Michigan State and Ohio State, and missed the Big Ten championship. It went 11-2 in 2019 but lost to Minnesota and Ohio State, and narrowly missed the Big Ten championship. Then it went 11-2 in 2022 but lost to Michigan and Ohio State. Finally, its 10-3 record in 2023 came thanks to losses to the Buckeyes and Wolverines.

Without Ohio State and Michigan, Penn State is a national power with multiple playoff appearances.

That leads to the future outlook, which is overwhelmingly positive with the playoff expanded to 12 teams and the Big Ten East no longer in existence. Franklin and the Nittany Lions can now go 10-2 and make the 12-team field, quieting all the doubters who say that “he can’t win the big one.”

Apr 13, 2024; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Julian Fleming (3) runs behind the line of scrimmage during the second quarter of the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. The White team defeated the Blue team 27-0. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Transfers In: 6

Transfers Out: 16

Penn State’s recruiting baseline is so strong that the program does not need a heavy influx of transfers. The program enters 2024 with transfers starting at wide receiver (Julian Fleming), right tackle (Nolan Rucci) and cornerback (A.J. Harris). That’s it.

The substantial offseason movement relates to homegrown players improving — especially former five-star quarterback Drew Allar. That, and new DC Tom Allen joins after a long tenure as head coach at Indiana.

Penn State got better this offseason, just not with a big transfer class.

Nov 24, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin leads his team on to the field before the game against Michigan State at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: OVER (10-2, with wins over West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland)

Penn State’s schedule in the first year of the new Big Ten can’t possibly be as challenging as it was during the East-West division era. It plays Ohio State, but gets that game at home and otherwise avoids Oregon and Michigan.

Consecutive road trips to USC and Wisconsin are the only real roadblocks on what looks like a double-digit-win schedule.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar drops back to pass during the Blue-White game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, April 13, 2024, in State College. The White team defeated the Blue team, 27-0. Credit: Dan Rainville-USA TODAY NETWORK

Penn State’s 2024 ceiling is defined by the progression of former five-star QB Drew Allar. He was good in 2023, but not quite dynamic enough to defeat Michigan or Ohio State. He’s now back along with top running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and top tight end Tyler Warren. The Nittany Lions should boast one of the conference’s better all-around offensive attacks.

The team did lose a lot on defense after 2023. But defensive end Abdul Carter is set to lead a group that should still be one of the conference’s better units. Penn State’s recruiting base is just to strong to ever have a substantial regression on defense.

The Nittany Lions should be favored to make the playoff in 2024. Anything less would be a significant failure.

Penn State head football coach James Franklin looks around before walking off the field following a 24-15 loss to Michigan at Beaver Stadium Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in State College, Pa. Dan Rainville-USA TODAY NETWORK

Bowl Projection: College Football Playoff first round (No. 8 seed)

Penn State can afford to lose to Ohio State and drop a game at either USC or Wisconsin, and still make the 12-team playoff. That feels like the most likely outcome. The Nittany Lions don’t appear to be a national title contender, but 10 wins is almost an afterthought.

Penn State’s trip to Madison, Wisconsin is one of the Badgers’ biggest games on their 2024 schedule. The Nittany Lions will be either 6-0 or 5-1 entering that contest, ranked among the top teams in the country and heavily favored. It is a significant opportunity for Luke Fickell and his program for a statement victory.

Badgers fans will want to monitor the Nittany Lions’ progress throughout the season before the Oct. 26 meeting.

Otherwise, Wisconsin should aspire to reach Penn State’s consistent level of success. It feels like the current ceiling for the program: perennial 10-win seasons and constant 12-team playoff consideration. It should be Fickell’s goal over the next 4-5 seasons.